Context: Following the U.S. election result, the relationship between the U.S. and India during Donald Trump’s second term could become stronger, although tariff-related issues may create challenges.

Why US India ties will be strengthed?
• Aligned Strategic Interests: Both the U.S. and India perceive China as a major strategic challenge, creating a shared focus on the Indo-Pacific region and encouraging collaboration on defence and security.
• Leadership and Political Commitment: Donald Trump’s expected second term is likely to strengthen U.S.-India relations, building on the robust ties established during his first term. The pro-India stance of Trump’s cabinet appointees further signals continued support for deepening bilateral ties.
• Opportunities for Economic Cooperation:Renewed efforts toward trade agreements and economic partnerships, including the potential finalization of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), could improve market access and lower tariffs, benefiting both nations’ economies.
• Collaboration in Defence and Technology:Ongoing cooperation in defence and technology, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and emerging technologies, will enhance mutual security and bolster the partnership.
In which area would ties be strengthened?
• Defence and Security: The U.S. and India have deepened their defence partnership through joint military exercises and technology sharing, including a recent proposal to resume the transfer of jet engine technology to India.
• The India-U.S. Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) promotes collaboration in fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and cybersecurity.
• Economic Ties: Bilateral trade has grown significantly, increasing by 72% between 2017-18 and 2022-23, underscoring a strong economic relationship. Both nations are working to resolve trade disputes to maximize mutual benefits.
• Technological Cooperation: Programs like INDUS-X aim to connect defence start-ups from both countries, fostering innovation in military technology and advancing critical areas such as semiconductors.
• Multilateral Engagement: Collaboration through platforms like the Quad (with Japan and Australia) enhances regional security efforts and addresses shared challenges, particularly concerning China.
What were the successful agreements between India and the USA during the first term of the Donald Trump period?Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA):Signed in September 2018, this agreement enabled secure communication between the armed forces of India and the U.S., improving interoperability during joint operations. Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA): Concluded in October 2020, BECA established a framework for sharing geospatial intelligence critical for military planning and operations. Industrial Security Annex (ISA): Signed in December 2019, this agreement facilitated greater collaboration in defence manufacturing and technology transfers between the two nations. Strategic Trade Authorization (STA-1) Status: The U.S. granted India STA-1 status, simplifying access to advanced technologies previously reserved for NATO allies. 2+2 Dialogue Mechanism: This platform brought together the defense and foreign ministers of both countries to address strategic issues, strengthening diplomatic and defense cooperation. |
What could be the challenges between India and the USA?
• High Tariffs and Market Access: Disputes over tariffs and access to Indian markets, especially for U.S. products in the agriculture and technology sectors, continue to be major points of contention.
• Geopolitical Differences: Diverging policies on issues such as Iran and Russia could strain the relationship, especially given India’s long-standing ties with Russia.
• Legal Investigations: Ongoing investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice into matters involving Indian entities might complicate diplomatic ties and foster perceptions of bias against the Indian government.
Way forward
• Engage in Productive Dialogue: India should proactively engage with the U.S. to resolve tariff disputes and find mutually advantageous solutions that improve market access for American products while safeguarding domestic interests.
• Enhance Economic Cooperation Structures:Developing comprehensive economic agreements that cover trade, investment, and technology sharing can help reduce tensions and strengthen the partnership.
• Clarify Positions on Geopolitical Matters: India should clearly communicate its stance on sensitive geopolitical issues to prevent misunderstandings with the U.S., particularly concerning its ties with Iran and Russia.